Trading Observations

• Futures are under a little pressure to start the day after a strong week and post NVDA numbers

• The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.43%. Gold up and oil flat. Bitcoin pushing towards $100,000 hitting a new record.

• 5950 first resistance.   Closed right at 5865-5875 support zone, next support 5775

Futures

DOW +14

S&P -5.75

Nasdaq -47

10-Year Yield

Oil

Gold

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

MSTR – Up 2% - CEO on CNBC today talking up the fact that they have been borrowing at 6%, Bitcoin has been going up 60%, and the premium is warranted. The company is “making” $500MM per day currently “per the CEO, but they aren’t actually making money in a real sense. Stock back to $408. Leverage exists here so the way down can be painful. They are the only company that has ever issued 5 coverts in a single year. “Every Bitcoin you don’t buy today will cost you $13MM in the future per the CEO’s model”.

GAP – Up 18% on solid annual sales forecast. 10x P/E, very high short interest, didn’t miss. Catalysts for a rip were all there and they just had to deliver fundamentally.

ROST gains 7% after the discount retailer lifted annual projections for earnings per share

In Baird’s breakdown of the Payments world, they looked at earnings quality….and the winners were …..SQ, PAY, and TOST.

GS – Positive on BDCs and Direct Lending world as they see credit spread contraction abating. We would disagree given the amount of money that has ran towards the industry recently.

ABBV edges up 0.7% after Leerink Partners upgraded the drugmaker to outperform from market perform saying recent setbacks create an upside opportunity

HCA Healthcare (HCA), Tenet Healthcare (THC) and Community Health Systems (CYH) slip after all three names were downgraded at Raymond James with analyst John Ransom citing potential headwinds ahead for the group

Technology

The software outperformance over vs semiconductors trade saw another move yesterday fueled by SNOW beat and raise while NVDA strong numbers were expected. Shorted stocks outperformed yesterday as well, could see another day with option expiration. Good indicator is how MSTR trades after Citron’s short report yest and another push higher in SMCI.

BIDU dips 3% after the Chinese internet search engine was cut to equal weight from overweight by Barclays following disappointing results Thursday

ESTC soars 27% after the software company raised its full-year forecast

INTU falls 3% after the maker of the TurboTax tax preparation software provided a sales and profit outlook for the current quarter that fell short of analysts’ estimates

NTAP climbs 7% as the tech-hardware firm boosted guidance following an earnings beat

RBLX advances as much as 0.5% after the video-game company was added to the analyst current favorites list at Raymond James

At present, 35% of the S&P 500 is withing 5% of an all-time high… around 70% is within 15%...