Trading Observations

• Quiet.  Futures off a touch with Smalls lagging

• BofA latest fund manager survey shows US equity exposure surges to 11-year high after election - Bloomey

• Citi says post-election rally in US stocks could run out of steam as investors start to take profits - Bloomey

• Yields up as bond mkt reopens, USD continues higher

• Some churn likely necessary to burn off optimism [cnn.com] and overbought conditions

• 14D RSIs- Russell 2000 75, S&P MidCap 74, Dow 70, S&P 500 69, Naz 69

• HD higher on earnings.  Consumer Discretionary already up 10%+ in 5D (thanks, TSLA) and trading 3z above avg relative to Staples

• Today: Fed’s Waller at 10:00 am, Fed’s Barkin at 10:15 am, NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations at 11:00 am, Fed’s Kashkari at 2:00 pm, Fed’s Harker and Barkin amc

• CPI tomorrow and Powell Thursday

Upgrades – AVBH, BMY, CHRW, CRI, IFF, S, SABK, TWLO, VIK

Downgrades – AVAV, ABNB, ALNY, ALTM, ABG, AESI, BAX, FMBH, FIVN, HMN, HPP, KNX, OKTA, PHUN, RAPT, ROST, RXO, SNDR, CXM, TCBK

Futures

DOW +46

S&P -4.5

Nasdaq -13

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

Nov 2024, China owns $774.6 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, making it the second largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Japan is the largest foreign holder, with $1.13 trillion in Treasury securities. China has been buying U.S. Treasury securities for decades. some analysts and investors worry that China could sell off its U.S. debt holdings, which could increase interest rates and hurt economic growth.

HD + 2% - beat on stronger sales, FY24 guide raised on 3Q upside (4Q view left unchanged) - Q3 beat and flagged some help from weather normalization, while FY24 guide was bumped up a bit.

Visa is collaborating with Affirm to debut a new US card that merges debit transactions with buy now, pay later (BNPL) options, with plans to expand into the UAE and eventually Europe.

HOOD October metrics better than expected.

Technology

AMZN Annapurna Labs reportedly spending big to make custom AI chips, cutting dependence on NVDA

SHOP – Rev growth accelerated to 26%; FCF margin expanded to 19%

CRM – Reiterate Top Pick at Baird - announced on Friday that it was hiring 1000people to feed the demand for its new Agentforce offering. against muted expectations for CRM, we see a catalyst path through 2025 that includes: 1) Agentforce traction, 2) improvements to top line, 3) potentially new financial targets at Dreamforce 2025.

Industrials 

Bloomberg news reported the U.S. unveils plan to triple nuclear power by 2050 as demand soars; Biden White House aims to see capacity rise by 200 gigawatts; President-elect Trump has offered support for new reactors (watch shares of CEG, SMR, CCJ, OKLO, NNE, etc.)

Southwest is offering buyout to airport workers and blaming BA for the job cuts. As It Launches Buyouts, Southwest Blames Boeing [newser.com]