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River1 Asset Management
November 26, 2024

NYSE Ticker: RVER

Calendar

This Week – Day off Thursday, Half Day Friday dominates what is seasonally a very good week for stocks. Some tech reports post close Tuesday.

Tuesday – Home sales, Fed Minutes, WDAY, DELL, HPQ, ADSK, CRWD earnings post close.

Wednesday – Complete data dump with PCE, Jobless Claims, Home Sales, & Durable Goods.

Trading Observations

Lot of talk on tariffs
I think zero chance Mexico/Canada tariffs happen as I think they both adjust policy to stop immigration/drug flow before Jan, but we shall see
Would ignore until its implemented
FOMC minutes due
ADI higher KSS, ZM lower on earnings. DELL after the bell
S&P 6010 resistance 5940 support...
NYSE Adv/Decl line new all-time high - usually peaks 7 months before S&P peaks
STAT OF DAY: a company which produces NOTHING (ie MSTR) was 4th most traded stock -- NVDA $43.1B; TSLA $29.7B; AAPL $18.27B; MSTR $15.51B

Futures

DOW -182

S&P +12

Nasdaq +53

CNN Fear/Greed Index

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

KSS – Down 17% on CEO retiring and sales falling flat.

VC Recap from JPM – VC Investment written checks are up 80% In Q4 Q/Q and 81% y/y. However, US VC Fundraising is down 19% Q/Q and Y/Y. This means VC funds are writing more checks but struggling to raise new capital.

October RV Shipments +8% Y/Y, but October Powerboat retail sales were down 11% y/y. Still a messy part of the economy.

WFC – Up 2% on news its in the last stages to lift its former regulatory bank capital penalty.

Bank Capital – Strong in Q3 per GS as the banks held onto retained earnings.

DKS - shares rise 8.5% in premarket trading after the retailer’s comparable sales for the third quarter topped the consensus estimate

BURL -5%...earnings and guide below vs. higher expectations

Technology

ADI: +4% Sees Q1 revs inline; (conf call 10am ET) / 3.2% implied move: Sentiment towards analogs remains neg/positioning light given L-shaped recovery (violent squeeze last few days)

INTC: will receive $7.9B in federal grants from the US gov’t (the final sum is a bit smaller than the initial $8.5B proposal

Qualcomm's interest in Intel has cooled, may look at parts of company or take another look in future - Bloomey

Cyber Threats: Blue Yonder, a major supply chain software company, was hit with a ransomware attack on Monday, knocking out service for a slew of firms, including Starbucks (WSJ)

NVDA: testing 50D; have yet to see LO community step in as stock cont bleed lower post expectations miss last Thur night ... some saying story 'not as clean' as was case 12 mos ago ... semis were squeezed with auto chips ripping (ADI/ON/NXPI/TXN/WOLF) NVDA: Reuters reports that China welcomes the presence of Nvidia and aims to build a better business environment for foreign firms, its vice commerce minister told an exec of the U.S. chip maker at a meeting in Beijing on Monday .... comes as the Biden admin is set to unveil new export restrictions on China, aiming to further limit Chinese businesses' access to advanced semi tech

SMTC: +20%... healthy beat + raise ... biggest surprise is that revs for active copper cables was in the high-single-digit millions range, and notes that mgmt expects this to ramp up through each quarter of next year; predicts long-term AI demand in their data centers. (Blackwell Play) Short interest is 9.2% of the float on debt levels ($1.19B in debt, Leverage at 8x.) … watch CIEN, CRDO, COHR, LITE

ZM: -7% low bar; ok qrtr / guide inline. Although Q3 beat near low end of where buyside bogey was. FCF beat. Increased stock authorization by $1.2B. Not strong enough to attract the incremental buyer; outlook does not call for this to continue into 4Q and FY26

• ADSK: #s tonight / 6.4% implied move

• CRWD: #s tonight / 7.8% implied move

• DELL: #s tonight / 9.1% implied move

• HPQ: #s tonight / 7.8% implied move

• WDAY: #s tonight / 9.3% implied move