Calendar

This Week – 20 Fed speakers, but no Powell should all drown out in noise. This would be a key negative pre-announcement week for some into bank earnings which kick off Friday.

Thursday – TSLA Robotaxi, CPI, Jobless Claims, DPZ and DAL earnings.

Friday – PPI, Bank earnings begin with JPM, WFC, BK, BLK.

Trading Observations

• Fresh highs going into CPI which came in a touch hot, jobless claims higher . . .now what.

• 5765 now support, blue skies above

• IWM $225 still the massive level to get animal spirits rolling.... 

• STAT of the day - Russell 2000 three years ago today: 2,220.6.  Russell 2000 today: 2,200.6

Futures

DOW -100

S&P -20

Nasdaq -102

10-Year Yield

Oil

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

CPI – Slightly warm. OER which is owners equivalent rent and a huge part of CPI, was below expectations, but it is a very lagging indicator. The rest was warm.

Initial Jobless Claims came in high at 258k vs a recent average of ~180k. Potentially the start of a seasonal build, potentially just hurricane Helene related.

Goldman’s Tactical Trades into Earnings – They like long upward revising names like AMGN, AZEK, C, NVDA, PR, SRE and TOST and like downside in LYB and UPST.

CELH – Celsius +5% on Stifel positive outlook.

PYPL – Down 2% on Bernstein downgrade on competition and valuation.

C, MA – Teaming up to make cross border debit card transactions easier.

NKE shares gain 1.5% in premarket trading after Truist Securities raised the sportswear giant to buy from hold, saying it seems to be moving in the right direction with the return of company veterans including Elliot Hill.

PFE shares fall as much as 3% in premarket trading on Thursday after its former executives Ian Read and Frank D’Amelio decided “not to be involved” in Starboard Value’s activist campaign against the drug company.

Technology

AMZN: Yipit Live saying AMZN AWS has had a huge acceleration, now trailing at close to 24% Y/Y

AMD: Advanacing AI event @ 12pm ET; no major announcements expected but dont under estimate Lisa Su (Co raised their AI guide during earnings call last Halloween)

AVGO: fresh highs ... on Wed, early laggard in alpha on ALAB headlines / impressive reversal to highs … bulls: think that ALAB is going to get limited traction (and AVGO has a history of locking down markets and they pretty much control the PCIe switching market) .. CEO with BofA HQ trip tmrw

META: alpha laggard post BMO call; saw LO supply ... Goldman: expects Meta shares to be volatile due to a mixture of the digital advertising end-demand dynamic and further signals about 2025 investment priorities/levels.

SMCI: -1% Barclays cut #s last night on fwd ests on GB200 mkt shr and GM headwind

UBER / LYFT - Uber CEO Says Autonomous Ride Margins Will Take Years to Grow

Industrials 

NOVA gain 8.7% in premarket trading after Jefferies initiated coverage of the renewable energy company with a buy rating, saying it “could be one of the best turnaround stories in our clean coverage.

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) initiated buy with $225 target at Goldman Sachs

Canadian National Railway (CNR) upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC

Carrier Global (CARR) resumed neutral vs prior underweight at JP Morgan

EVgo, Inc. (EVGO) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS

Fortive (FTV) upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgran

GXO Logistics (GXO) exploring sale - Bloomberg

Hexcel (HXL) downgraded to hold from buy at Vertical Research Partners

Honeywell International (HON) downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan

Hubbell (HUBB) downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) downgraded to hold from buy at Vertical Research Partners

L3Harris (LHX) upgraded to outperform at Wolfe

LSB Industries (LXU) upgraded to buy at UBS

Nutrien (NTR) downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS

SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) initiated neutral with $158 target at Goldman Sachs

Tronox Holdings (TROX) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS