Calendar

This Week – We count 11 Fed speakers with Powell Monday mattering most. End of quarter rebalancing work likely mostly done. Bond market feels like the driver all week.

Monday – Powell speaks mid-day, End of Quarter

Tuesday – NKE earnings, JOLTS, ISM Manufacturing, Vehicle Sales, Vice Presidential Debate

Wednesday – ADP

Thursday – Jobless Claims, Durable Goods

Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls

Trading Observations

• China continues to rally

• Month/Quarter likely some more work to do after big quarter moves.

• Geopolitical once again headed up over the weekend.

• Fear and Greed 68, creeping to Extreme levels (75)

• Oscillators still overbought but getting closer to neutral

• 5690 first support...   

Futures

DOW -63

S&P -9.5

Nasdaq -35

10-Year Yield

Gold

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

SBUX – JPM lays out their “best guess for the next three years under the new CEO using his Taco Bell and CMG playbook. They like $4.80 for EPS in F27, which at 20x is about where its trading.

KR, ABS – Street expecting the judge to make a merger decision in the next few weeks. Dems would love it struck down to claim winning one for the people.

JPM – Down 1.3% - MS out negative saying rate cut benefits are lacking. Stock downgraded.

HD LOW - Fundamentals in the home improvement market are likely to improve in the coming months as mortgage rates go down, according to Piper Sandler analyst Peter J. Keith, who hiked price targets on Home Depot and Lowe’s to Street-highs

Technology

US-listed China stocks are rallying after three of the country’s largest cities eased rules for homebuyers. The moves come after China’s policymakers unveiled aggressive home stimulus to prop up the beleaguered real estate sector. Alibaba (BABA) +4%, Nio (NIO) +14%, Bilibili +9%.

Large Cap Tech – could see some month end pressure after some of the moves over the quarter.

T gains 1% after agreeing to sell its majority stake in DirecTV to private equity firm TPG Inc. for $7.6 billion in cash.

GOGO gains 4% after the in-flight broadband company agreed to buy Satcom Direct for $375m in cash and five million shares of Gogo stock at closing.

Industrials 

Boeing (BA) -International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers talks halt – Bloomberg - In a statement, the IAMAW says that no further talks are scheduled, given that among other issues, Boeing "would not engage substantively" on pay and wage progression; both Boeing and the union indicate willingness to continue negotiations

Stellantis (STLA) drops 13% after slashing its forecasts for the year, citing plans to lower production and spend more on promotional incentives in a slowing and more competitive auto market. Shares of General Motors (GM) are down 4% and Ford (F) slips 3%

Freeport McMoRan (FCX) downgraded to sector perform at Scotiabank

Frontier Group (ULCC) upgraded to market perform from underperform at Raymond James

RPM International (RPM) discloses jury rendered verdict against company subsidiary for $190M; intends to vigorously challenge verdict - 8-K

Westlake (WLK) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays

F – Offers free home EV chargers in bid to boost vehicle sales