Calendar

This Week – This week feels like all that matters is NVDA. There have been few signs the AI buying spree has stopped, but these earnings will either confirm or completely turn the tables for the end of year.

Wednesday – NVDA earnings post close,  TGT, TJX, PANW, SNOW report as well.

Thursday – Jobless Claims, DE, NTAP, ROST report

Friday – Global PMI

Trading Observations

• US stock futures rose 0.2%, climbing for the third straight day, the longest winning streak since Nov. 11

• NVDA:  Nvidia reports today post close (3:20 pm).  Very important.

• US closes embassy in Kyiv over increased tensions in Russia

• Target plunges 16.7% premarket after cutting its profit outlook

• The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.43%. Gold and oil climb. Bitcoin trades above $94,000, hitting a new record.

• 5950 first resistance.   Closed right at 5865-5875 support zone, next support 5775

Futures

DOW +70

S&P +4

Nasdaq +13

10-Year Yield

Oil

Oil

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

TGT – Down 17% - It’s a top and bottom-line miss, but it’s mostly a bad bottom-line miss. Sees FY $8.60 vs $9.57 estimated as they are warnings of a bad holiday. Margins are simply deteriorating at a high rate for an already low margin business.

CHWY – Up 5% on an upgraded to buy from underperform (double upgrade) by BAC.

CMCSA – To spin off its cable assets which include CNBC, MSNBC, E!, and Golf Channel. Enjoy even more subscriptions once this and the Paramount nonsense is all done. Revenue was $7B, but they do not say profits, which we’d bet are terrible

JPM – Downgraded to perform at Opco post-election rally.

LMND – Up 6% on an upgrade to equal-weight from underweight at MS post Investor Day.

Apartment Construction – Dead. However, the Architectural Billings Index for October was 50.3 vs 45.7 in September and new projects were up nicely.

LZB beat and noted while furniture and home furnishings related spending remains soft, it is outperforming industry

LMND advances 6.3% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the online insurance company to equal-weight from underweight after an investor day event. The broker also increased its price target to a Street high of $42.6% compared to 6.5% for the bank index.

Technology

NVDA: barely a downtick Tues - closing @ $147 ... For Jan qrtr, $38-39B seems to be where most bogeys lie (heard MS pushing $37B but that seems way too light); stock helped today but flurry of partners/brokers saying Blackwell overheating concerns not accurate (positioning / sentiment off highs here; yesterday felt like some regrossing into the print)

AAPL: iPhone exports from India jump as the company shifts its supply chain away from China (Bloomberg)

AAPL: -0.3% Counterpoint Research - "China's smartphones sales down 9% y/y during Singles' Day '24 (versus Huawei +7%)

APP: +2% picks up new bull in Piper - says AppLovin's technology has driven advertising revenue growth well above the market, and there is room to drive monetization and minute higher

DELL: +1.2% added to Tactical Outperform list @ ISI

FLEX: +6% to replace Azenta in S&P midcap 400

NFLX: hitting all-time highs daily occurrence; Pivotal lifting PT to $1100 NFLX heard Yipit out with massive numbers post Tyson/Paul; largest single-day of gross adds observed on panel since 2020

BL – BULLISH FRESH PICK at Baird following user conf in Orlando

QCOM – BULLISH FRESH PICK at Baird - based on AI-driven ASP momentum along with potential mix and share gains

ROKU: -3% 3P data? some insider sales hitting

VRT: +15% best day since 2023; post investor day - bulls liked the LT guidance, as they said they’re on track to add 100gw of capacity through 2029. BofA renewed it on US 1 list with retail aggressively adding

WIX: +11% Raises FY Bookings, Rev & FCF guide; sees room for further growth acceleration in '25. Expects to generate FCF of $483-$488M (27-28% rev)

Industrials 

AeroVironment (AVAV) upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies

DAL lower after Dec qtr outlook comments ahead of investor day

EVs: NIO trading lower after reporting Q3 top/bottom miss - XPeng (XPEV) ADRs Raised to Buy at CMB International; PT $16

October US Architecture Billings Index (ABI) rises to 50.3 vs 45.7 in September – New Projects Inquiries 54.1 vs. 51.6 in September - "Billings finally stabilized this month, and firms are feeling more optimistic about revenue projections for 2025. Overall, 41% of responding firm leaders expect to see net revenue growth from 2024 to 2025, with 32% projecting growth in the 5-9% range."

SolarEdge (SEDG) upgraded to neutral at Guggenheim

AZEK beat with both Residential and Commercial ahead and guided above. Baird Remain buyers here, as long-term tailwinds continue, and we see opportunities for potential upside through the year (better seller on our desk into print) https://tinyurl.com/yckcmvmu [tinyurl.com]

At present, 35% of the S&P 500 is withing 5% of an all time high… around 70% is within 15%...