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Trading Observations
PPI came in a touch hot, ex food and energy
6000 resistance. 5875 support
II Bulls up to 60.3% - first time crossing the 60% headwind threshold
Strong rotation from Semis to Software continues, could subside heading into NVDA earnings next week.
Upgrades – AAL, BRSP, BXP, CPB, CAVA, DEI, DOCS, INSG, PRU, UNM
Downgrades – AESI, BLNK, BOXL, GWH, INVZ, JACK, JXN, KRC, KRON, LBRDA, NU, PZZA, PLUG, O, SUI, TH, ZETA
Futures
DOW +97
S&P -1
Nasdaq -22

CNN Fear/Greed Index
Gold - Flock to Bitcoin and the 10 year moving higher has weighed on Gold

Oil

10 Year – Houston . . we have a problem (we are now 90 bps off the lows)

Consumer/Financial Healthcare
DIS – Up 12% - See our video from this week. There are puts and takes but they are fixing the money wasting and guided F2025E to $5.37 vs $4.97 street and implies $6 in 2026 possible too. A 20x on that sis $120, stock is $112 last.
NU – Down 7% - The high flying South American technology first bank name beat net income nicely, but NIM and tax provision were a negative. The stock was up 88% YTD coming in as well.
SCHW – Up 5% on strong monthly results. Inflows are clearly helping this firm as They now have $9.85T under management, up 29% y/y. Core net new assets brought to the company by new and existing clients for October of $24.6 billion.
Manhattan Rents - +2.4% y/y in October to $4295/month.
JPM points out that the US Investment banks have ripped and trade 15x P/E (expensive for these types of names) but the real bargains are in Europe with DBK and Barclays at 6x P/E.
JPM out saying that ETF flows into XLF, KRE are only half what they were in 2016, and have room to run.
BZH EBITDA beat and expects further expansion in community count in FY25.
SONO beat and highlighted progress on improving software and positive feedback surrounding new products.
TGT on watch after Evercore ISI warns of negative earnings reaction.. also negative on BJ
HLT AUTHORIZED BUYBACK OF AN ADDL $3.5B OF STOCK
DIS top/bottom line beat; Guidance and outlook – We are confident in the long-term prospects for the business and believe we are well positioned for growth
CPRI falls 5% and Tapestry (TPR) gains 7% after the pair ended an $8.5 billion plan to merge following a US court order freezing the deal due to antitrust regulators’ objections.
Technology
AI: trade was heavy Wed with MPWR-6%, SMCI-6%, MU-4%, AMD-3%, MRVL/TSM-2.8%, CLS-2.4%, AVGO/DELL/NVDA-1.4% ... overnight, Hynix-5.4%, Gigabyte/Quanta/Wistron/King Yuan/Lite-On down 2% - 3%; Hon Hai-1.4%, ASPEED-1.1% ... Hon Hai bullish comments on AI demand; next catalyst Nvidia results in 6 days
SOFTWARE MOMENTUM: rotation into SW, out of Semis has been fast + furious to say the least (gut is see some reversion with Nvidia earnings 6 days out) but bulls belive that Software will have its shot in the AI spotlight as AI agents/apps ramp as ROI use cases are easy to prove
SNOW Baird Preview – Expect solid results. expect continued 20%+ growth for SNOW for at least the next few years. SNOW is trading at 39x our F26 FCF forecast, which we view attractive when coupled with the strong growth
ASML up after reiterating 2030 guide. I don’t even know what I am doing this weekend . . .
AMZN / HIMS - HIMS SHARES FALL 6% PREMARKET AMID AMAZON TELEHEALTH OFFERING
AMZN launches “Haul” to challenge Shien and Temu… Amazon Haul has deals for under $10 | CNN Underscored [cnn.com]
HP missed on fiscal Q4 EBITDA and guided Q1 EBITDA 6% below.
NVDA: Jefferies/Fubon positive overnight - "checked in with KYEC who reconfirm they should have produced 150-200K Blackwell chips by year end"
NVDA rises 1% after HSBC hiked its price target to a joint Street high noting there is still more AI-driven growth in store.
NVDA / AI: Nvidia Partners Hon Hai, Quanta See Strong AI Demand Into 2025 -Bloomberg
SMCI: -9.5% (-83% from peak) ... WSJ article flagging the risk of Nasdaq delisting story; "Super Micro risks being delisted from the Nasdaq if it doesn't submit a plan to regain compliance by Nov 16th"
Industrials
OXY reported solid EPS upside at 1.00 (vs. the Street 76c), and they exceeded expectations on production and free cash flow too. Total average global production of 1,412 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day
Airlines should see powerful rally in 2025 – Barclays
Buybacks in the best seasonal period of the year with 95% having window open and authorizations up 17% for 2024 v 2023

EPS continues to rise and likely still runway before we top out


4 minutes on if Elon can actually rip out $2 trillion in gov’t spending?