Calendar

Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls, Several Fed Speakers

Upgrades – BRKR, COP, EXAS, GTES, HPE, ITW, MBLY, OKTA, ROK

Downgrades – ABBV, ALLY, AEO, AMAT, CHWY, CNX, DVN, F, GRAB, FWONA, MRVI, NCNO, OTIS, PFG, PB, ROP, SBRA, FOUR, SM, SBLK, VCYT

Trading Observations

• Little incremental - biggest development was XLK (Tech) pushing to high since July

• Bitcoin garnering all the headlines thru 100k

• Closed right at 6085, 6010 support blue skies above....

• Couple of reasons for the bull to continue
  Oscillators max overbought,  DSI for Nasdaq and S&P both now at 85

Futures

DOW -38

S&P -2

Nasdaq -10

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

UPST, LC – JPM is downgrading after a massive rally fueled by two rate cuts and Trump is going to be amazing for these names related rally.

FI - Expect to be down 1-3% today after CEO Bisignano selected by Trump to run the Social Security Administration.

DG looks mixed… 89c vs est 94c; narrows FY EPS guidance…

Bitcoin related ripping as it pushed through $100k per coin. MSTR, RIOT, MARA, HOOD, RIOT, COIN, BTBT all up 5%+.

SOFI – Down 2% as a block trade of 19.7MM shares priced $16.10. We cannot blame the seller. The stock was $7 mid-year.

FI – Fiserv – CEO announced to run the Social Security Agency for Trump. Baird thinks the stock should be down 1-3%.

Industrial Real Estate – Baird saying 15% upside still despite subdued rent growth and higher supply.

ULTA – Baird positive into earnings as the name trades at a discount to the S&P with a set of known headwinds and tailwinds. Sephora competitively is a thing. They reset the margin bar lower giving them room for promotions into Christmas. 

ASB – The mid-November equity raise led to thoughts off a potential deal. Instead, they are taking a $253MM after-tax loss in Q4 on a resi mortgage portfolio sale.

TD – Down 3% on meh earnings and suspension of its medium-term estimates.

Technology

Bitcoin +4.5%: >$100k as crypto proponent Paul Atkins to lead the SEC ... MSTR+6%, HOOD+4.3%, COIN+3%; a lot more aggressive moves under the surface with smaller cap crypto proxies

RIOT rises 6% along with other cryptocurrency-exposed stocks, with the group climbing after Bitcoin rallied past $100,000 for the first time.

S falls 15% after the cybersecurity software company posted 3Q profit that fell short of estimates.

TSM is in discussions with NVDA to produce its Blackwell artificial intelligence chips at the contract manufacturer's new plant in Arizona, Reuters reported citing sources. TSM is already preparing to start production early next year

TSLA: PT lifted to $400 @ BofA

NVDA: sign agreement w/ Vietnam to open AI center

Amazon Web Services (AWS) is aiming to challenge Nvidia’s chip dominance, building a huge AI supercomputer powered by hundreds of thousands of its own Trainium chips.

SMTC – Baird Reiterating Bullish Fresh Pick designation due to Semtech's qualification in the upcoming ramp of AI-based platforms, upcoming ramp of LPOs and next wave of optical investments

AVAV EBITDA missed. 

VRNT: +20% strong upside in FQ3; mgmt bullish about AI/product momentum with customers. Despite the beat, the prior guidance for FY25 is left unchanged.

SNPS declines 7% after the maker of electronic design automation software provider a weaker-than-expected forecast.

Industrials 

APi Group Corp. (APG) initiated outperform at William Blair

Curtiss-Wright (CW) initiated buy, $452 PT at Deutsche Bank

Fastenal (FAST) reported November Average Daily Sale +3.4%

Ford (F) downgraded to underperform from peer perform at Wolfe

Gates Industrial (GTES) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays

Illinois Tool Works (ITW) upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Barclays

Magna International (MGA) upgraded to peer perform from underperform at Wolfe

Mobileye (MBLY) upgraded to outperform from peer perform at Wolfe

Otis Worldwide (OTIS) downgraded to underweight from equal weight at Barclays

Rockwell Automation (ROK) upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Barclays

Roper Technologies (ROP) downgraded to underweight from overweight at Barclays

Southwest Airlines (LUV) guides Q4 RASM +5.5-7.0% vs prior guidance +3.5-5.5%