Calendar

Monday – ISM Construction and Manufacturing, 2 Fed Speakers

Tuesday – JOLTS, Vehicle Sales, CRM earnings

Wednesday – ADP Employment, Beige Book, DLTR, DG earnings.

Thursday – Jobless Claims

Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls, Several Fed Speakers

Upgrades – ARCC, NET, DAN, EMBC, GAP, ICLR, ISRG, IQV, KYMR, MNSO, NEP, NVCR, OKTA, PYCR, RWAY, SCCO, SYK, TNDM, VNET, XNCR, ZBRA, SGN

Downgrades – ALNY, AMBA, ANAB, APLT, ADSK, BXSL, CTGO, DOCU, FSK, GKOS, HPQ, KSS, LC, MKL, NOAH, OTLK, PSTX, PGNT, RMBL, S, SYM, TENB, TOST, TRIN, UPST

Trading Observations

• The homestretch is upon us

• JOLTS tomorrow, ADP Emp Wed, ISM services Thurs, Jobs Fri. 

• Black Friday shopping +3.4%, according to MA

• 6010 support, blue skies above

• Sentiment getting frothy (though seasonality/calendar make it more of a concern once the calendar turns )

  • II Bull/bear ratio 3.46 (over 4 a big headwind)

  • Citi Panic-Euphoria now more euphoric than July

Futures

DOW -37

S&P +3

Nasdaq +43

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

UPST, LC – JPM is downgrading after a massive rally fueled by two rate cuts and Trump is going to be amazing for these names related rally.

REITs +4% in November per Baird, slightly below the S&P, but REITs did raise some capital into a slower week. Expectations for stock offerings higher going into the next few weeks.

JPM out with Two Notes on Overall Bank Credit, Consumer and Commercial. Consumer debt is “worth watching” as spending is finally out stripping deposit growth, and spending is driven largely by higher end earners. Office CRE remains the only current sticky situation in commercial lending. They note small business is seeing some pressure, but there’s plenty of buyers of distressed packaged loans.

TOST – Like JPM’s downgrades, GS did a Fin Tech Reboot of their names and is downgrading TOST to Neutral as the valuation is more balanced at +135% YTD

NU – Raed sell at Citi, stock down 3%.

SQ – Up 4% - Called “ Best new Idea” at Bernstein.

Macau gaming revenue tops expectations for November – Bloomey

Technology

SEMI RESTRICTIONS: the White House on Monday will unveil a new series of restrictive measures aimed at curtailing China’s semi industry .... new rules prohibit the sale of certain types of chips and equipment to China, in an effort to close loopholes and cement the Biden admins legacy in countering the U.S. rival. The restrictions will add >100 Chinese companies to the restricted trade list and are also likely to be the administration's last on Chinese technology before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration next month

SMCI – Replacing CFO (no surprise) – Special committee finds no evidence of misconduct.

INTC – CEO Retired effective Dec 1 . . . Happy Thanksgiving.

GOOGL fundamental and regulatory threats discussed in the financial press. OpenAI looking to reach 1B users over coming year.

Security Software: MS Advises Cybersecurity Caution; Downgrades S, TENB on high exposure to US public sector. Upgrades OKTA, NET on AI.

COIN executive anticipates crypto legislation passing Congress fairly quickly following Trump’s inauguration - CNBC

TSLA/Nvidia: Musk lands priority for Nvidia GB200 delivery in January with US$1.08 billion

NVDA (-1.3%) VAGUE -- "Rumors about Microsoft cutting GB200 orders because of the low yield of cartridge test issue; some newspapers and websites discussing"

CRM - sentiment is very bullish on CRM as investors anticipate healthy rev/cRPO growth going fwd (driven by the firm’s “Agent” approach to AI) coupled with margin expansion and capital return

META: plans to spend $10B+ on a huge, global fiber optical cable to ensure it has enough infrastructure to support its growing traffic needs (Tech Crunch)

Industrials 

BA - The FAA is adopting new airworthiness directives for certain Boeing 737 planes, according to notices in the Federal Register.

Volkswagen workers to go on "warning strikes" across Germany on Monday over layoffs, pay cuts, and possible plant closures – Reuters