Calendar

Tuesday – JOLTS, Vehicle Sales, CRM earnings

Wednesday – ADP Employment, Beige Book, DLTR, DG earnings.

Thursday – Jobless Claims

Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls, Several Fed Speakers

Trading Observations

• The market is dead flat as we await JOLTs at 10am Eastern and Salesforce earnings tonight. 10-year rates have been ticking lower to 4.18%, and a drop below 4.1% likely helps the tape. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is only at “Greed”, not “Extreme Greed”, but several of the factors are very overbought (see charts below). The Korean Won is tumbling as Martial Law has been declared as political flare ups are boiling over.

   

  We would bet JOLTS are fine, but slightly worse when you parse them out, and are worried about CRM’s earnings hurting the recent strength of t AI software trade tonight into this overbought tape.

Futures

DOW +9

S&P +2

Nasdaq -18

MSTR –

The CEO is on CNBC again this morning announcing they’ve bought more Bitcoin. They continue to sell stock to investors and buy bitcoin and vice versa making money in the short run, but the stock seems to have clearly peaked. He’s also telling MSFT they should put all their cash into Bitcoin instead of buying back stock or paying a dividend. He called this the 3^rd inning of Bitcoin.

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

Baird calls bank valuations “unattractive” after recent run.

MARA – Bitcoin related lower on more stock and bond issuance. Eventually demand will be “satiated”.

CLSK – Down 7% on delayed filing.

PLCE – Children’s Place down 20% on an earnings miss.

KR – Upgraded at Jeffries on Albertsons deal upside.

Technology

ZS – Down 6% on “Lighter Billings”.

SMCI – Up another 7% as Asia is clearly trading this one. Nothing new.

T – Up 3% on release they see profit gains through 2027 and announced a $20B buyback ($322B EV, so 6% buyback yield).

TSLA – Down 1% on news the pay package Elon is due worth $101.5B has been rejected by a judge.

PSQH – Public Square up 116% on news DJT Jr. is joining the board. It’s a Palm Beach company that sells Patriotic products.

SHOP – Announced over $11.5B in Black Friday sales, up 22% y/y.

ACN – Bearish Fresh Pick at Baird.

Industrials 

X – US Steel down 6% on Trump’s opposition to the sale of the company to Nippon.

ZJK – Up 470% after announcing a NVDA collaboration.

FDX – Downgraded to market perform at Bernstein on likely lowered FY outlook.