Trading Observations

• Powell comments perceived as a bit more hawkish (Dec cut odds down to 59%), though really still just consolidation after the big run

• BABA higher AMAT lower (and SMH continues to lag and now down 5 straight - first time since March) ShortsellerST [x.com] on earnings

• 5875 support, 6000 resistance

• New lows expanding

• Great chart on equity risk premium - im sure will cause some concern, but perspective (though valuations admittedly in a different place) SethCL [x.com]

Futures

DOW -182

S&P -35

Nasdaq -203

10-Year Yield - moving higher after Powell was Hawkish yesterday on rates. These levels can’t be ignore much longer

Oil

GOLD - getting a lot of attention given their underperformance as of late

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

DPZ – Up 4% on a new Berkshire stake 

Restaurant Checks at Baird – Positive at DPZ, CMG, WING, TXRH, CAVA. They like possible inflections in growth SBUX, YUM, PLTO.

SYF – low end credit name had roughly in line credit metrics with some small negatives on delinquencies and charge offs below the surface.

COF – Loans in-line. Card losses higher. Delinquencies worse, but its all by smallish amounts.

SBUX, CMG – Rated new outperform at RBC.

ULTA shares on watch after Berkshire 13F shows reduced stake. They bought stock in DPZ, POOL and BRK/A.

Technology

NFLX: Yipit saying Global net adds trending inline to above Q3 (recall, Q3: 5.1M reported adds and street at 8.9M adds for Q4)…Reminder, Jake Paul v Tyson tonight. Trade into the fight worked well. Next catalysts: 3p releases showing impact, Squid Games 2/NFL Live around Xmas

PANW Baird Preview - 11/20, we see an attractive bottom-line setup and a decent top-line setup, with investor focus on FCF and RPO guidance as the company transitioned from billings to RPO/ARR, emphasizing platformization/multi-year commitments.

AI winners – Barron’s says the AI trade isn’t over, and investors should buy NVDA ORCL VRT 

AMAT/Semicaps: -7% as Applied outlook raising fears over spend; delays in customer spending on equipment away from the AI demand ... growing uncertainty around export controls .. ppl want to see big WFE cuts and elevated worries over Samsung and INTC softer capex, and serious issues at Samsung in DRAM that could slow their HBM expansion plans

• Semicap bankshots: LRCX-3.6%, KLAC-3.1% ... across the pond: ASML (-3.3%), ASM (-1.6%), BE Semi (-1.5%), VAT Group (-1.4%)

SMCI shares saw further pressure on Thurs due to ongoing delisting worries (the company is still searching for an accounting firm) and competitive concerns (Cisco on its call Wed night announced it was launching a new Nvidia-based AI server product).

PLTR another gainer after it said it plans to transfer its listing to the Nasdaq from the NYSE – CULT STOCK

Industrials 

Defense contractors saw selling pressure on Thurs due reduced geopolitical worries following headlines such as (“Israel prepares Lebanon cease-fire plan as ‘gift’ to Trump” – and (“Ukraine’s bonds jump as investors bet Trump will end war” – FT)

Commercial real estate: office occupancy continues to climb as companies increasingly cut back on COVID-era work-from-home policies – NY Post

SOX heavy .. set to gap below its 200D; Nvidia print coming at critical juncture to say the least

AMZN: Looks like Bezos almost officially done after selling another 3.3M shares between Tues & Wednesday, which makes 16.35M shares sold since 11/1 and what he had remaining on his plan from July