Trading Observations

• Continue to work off the overbought - with oscillators still very overbought, making upside a bit tougher

• 5670/5640 support levels should we pull back at all ...

Futures

DOW +79

S&P +8

Nasdaq +50

Upgrades – BANC, BNTX, CNH, COLB, CMA, LOW, PB, RF, RYAN, CRM, WMT

Downgrades – KVUE, NSP, BIDU, CTLT, COST, CUBI, DOYU, EQR, ESS, XOM, FCNCA, FHN, INVH, JNPR, DRS, MCK, MNSO, REGN, SBUX, TGI

10-Year Yield

Gold - another all time high

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

Visa – Down 2% - News the DOJ plans to file suit against Visa for dunning a US debit and credit card monopoly. Given the regulatory issues here, high multiple, and late inning on US swipe growth, this feels like a dead name for a while.

Hyatt – Said to have repurchased $250MM class B sales from the Pritzker family.

CSGP – Positive on the name thinking Homes.com and Apartments.com as well as general real estate positivity on lower rates are a tailwind.

SBUX – Cut to sell at Jeffries as they say the run higher on the new CEO is overdone.

JPM – Dimon out positively on India after PM Modi has done the rounds in NY this week. He also thinks rates are staying higher for longer and talked up recession probability on higher inflation.

FHN – Down 1% on a Wedbush downgrade. They also upgraded BANC and COLB.

GPN: Analyst Day - focus is on messaging around KPIs and non-core assets as the CEO works to improve transparency

WMT shares rise more than 1% in premarket trading, after Truist Securities upgrades the retailer to buy from hold,

HD – PT raised to $400 from $345 at Oppenheimer

AZO comps missed

SBUX – Downgraded at Jefferies

CMA – Upgraded at Wedbush

Technology

CRM: upgrade @ Piper ... sees a favorable risk/reward profile for the shares given the potential for Salesforce's FCF per share to double to $20 by 2028 from $9.65 in 2023, even if its sales growth "remains at subdued levels" of 8%-9%

SNOW lower after announcing $2B convertible note offering.

ADBE: holding 100D; have seen some HF demand vs LO; everyone + mother called for LO defense post T+1 move but that has been slow to materialize ... Adobe Max Oct 14 next key catalyst for shrs

SNAP: +1.3% partnership w/ GOOGL on AI MODEL for snapchat

Semis/TSMC: MS reiterates TSMC Top Pick and raises capex + CoWoS forecasts (from $35B to $38B and 2025 CoWoS capacity to 80k); 15-20% rev CAGR for 2024-28 looks achievable

PINS shares are up 1.6% in premarket trading, after Oppenheimer & Co started coverage of the social-media company with an outperform rating and $45 price target

ROKU – Debuts $99 Ultra set-top box with upgraded remote control

UBER/LYFT: uptick in latest weekly Yip data

Industrials 

Northvolt, Europe’s leading EV battery maker, said it would slash 20% of its jobs and delay expansion of its main gigafactory as the firm struggles to find new capital – FT

GM was among the weakest stocks in the SPX on Monday following a downgrade from Bernstein (GM has an analyst meeting scheduled for 10/8, w/Q3 earnings due on 10/22)

Toll Brothers and Sunrun have entered into a partnership to provide solar power and storage to new homes.

DE - Trump threatened to hit DE with 200% tariffs if the company moves production to Mexico.

Notables

Tesla approaching big level on yearly, seen resistance 3x