Trading Observations

• Bears were focused on a second failed breakout attempt yesterday

• IWM breaking out with everything else, bulls seeking a CLOSE above 225

• Speaking of breadth, % of members over their 200-days- S&P500 77%, S&P Midcap 68%, Russell 2000 60% (all 1z+ above avg).  Nasdaq only 45%

• Approaching overbought, but not there yet

• Today: Weekly Claims and Philly Fed at 8:30 am, Leading Index at 10:00 am, Fed Balance Sheet Update amc

• Tomorrow: Triple Witch, S&P Index Rebalance

• Watching FDX tonight.  Transports relative to S&P500 remain 1z+ below avg.  FDX is 12% of the Dow Transports

• Support is 5580 against poor seasonality through the end of the month

Futures

DOW +431

S&P +86

Nasdaq +414

10-Year Yield

Gold

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

PYPL – Has had a good run off its lows and is +2.5% today on an announcement they will better integrate with AMZN.

DRI – Darden up 7% on what looks like short covering to us as the quarter wasn’t all that good. Olive Garden and Uber hooking up on delivery, which seems to have turned the tide.

Baird on Hotel REITs – Thinks CHH and WH have the greatest rate cut tailwinds as most hotels have some or a lot of floating rate debt.

Baird on Banks – Banks benefitting most from rate cuts include CMA, SFNC, FITB, and RF.

Architectural Billings Index – Weak for August at 45.7 vs 48.2 prior month. Bulls would say everyone waiting on rate cuts.

FI, GPN – Positive mentions at Baird.

DASH upgrade: BTIG checks point to ongoing near-term strength and under-appreciated longer-term drivers that lead it to raise ests "again"; hitting important milestones with positive EBIT and net income expected in the 2H, while rideshare-delivery is a scarce pocket of secular growth in consumer-facing Internet

Internet/Housing: RDFN+7%, Z+3.4% in pre

Technology

QQQ: ~485 level is where failed in 2H Aug .. currently hovering aruond 481 level

AAPL: +1.7% in pre; ystrdy stock +2% as Bernstein and MS both pointed out that lead time checks this early don’t really have meaningful correlation to what IP sales actually end up being; TMUS CEO also said iPhone sales up y/y

CRWD Feedback: F29 margins targets all reiterated from last year; some concerns around 2H ARR .. Evercore removes from 'Tactical Underperfrm; List

MBLY +9% JUMPS AS INTEL SAYS NO PLAN TO DIVEST STAKE

APP: Citi big PT hike - sees "multiple paths" for AppLovin to achieve its targeted software rev growth of 20% to 30%, including incremental share gains of mobile gaming ad spend, higher take rates, and a likely expansion into e-commerce ad budgets

PANW: cont to lag lrg cap SW .. lack of catalysts / CRWD announcement weighed; ~11% off T+1 highs

RDDT: +3% ystrdy continues its nice breakout over $60

Industrials 

AerCap (AER) Holdings announces new $500M share repurchase program

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) announces planned CEO and CFO transition - board has named Peter Jackson, CFO, as the company's next President & CEO and member of its board, effective 6-Nov-24 - Pete Beckmann, SVP, Financial Planning & Analysis, will succeed Jackson as CFO

Mobileye (MBLY) trading up 7% - Intel (INTC) says has no plans to sell stake in Mobileye

Union Pacific (UNP) hosting an Investor Day today

WillScot Holdings (WSC) downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays