Calendar

This Week – This week feels like all that matters is NVDA. There have been few signs the AI buying spree has stopped, but these earnings will either confirm or completely turn the tables for the end of year.

Monday – NAHB Housing, Goolsbee speaks, SMCI plan to avoid delisting?

Tuesday – Housing Starts, LOW, WMT report

Wednesday – NVDA earnings post close,  TGT, TJX, PANW, SNOW report as well.

Thursday – Jobless Claims, DE, NTAP, ROST report

Friday – Global PMI

Upgrades – ROKU, AMLX, BFAM, GRNT, FUTU, UFCS, APD, MPWR, CVS, MRNA, HOOD

Downgrades – RDFN, ADAG, BIIB, EOG, CR, CW, ESAB, IR, PH, PNW, CAR, CRL, FBK, NBHC, PNFP

Trading Observations

• Not much on the docket today

• Retailers reporting this week offer a look at consumers heading into the holidays

• Tech takes center stage Wed night with NVDA headlining (some worries popping up on Blackwell chip? Reuters [reuters.com]) Along with PANW SNOW

• Though history suggests top in QQQ not in yet jasongoepfert [x.com] and Fri only 58% downside vol day

• 5950 first resistance.   Closed right at 5865-5875 support zone, next support 5775

• NASI  pushing toward oversold heading into the week Scot1andT [x.com]

• Prominent bear, Mike Wilson of MS, is bullish on 2025 – Bloomey

Futures

DOW -44

S&P +5

Nasdaq +60

10-Year Yield - Market is not a fan of 4.5% 10-year.  Hard to believe after 75 bps cuts we are not far off the 2024 highs

Oil

Gold

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

Crypto stocks – Mostly lower as MARA is offering $700M in convertible notes and BTBT earnings missed.

HOOD is slightly higher on a Needham upgrade.

FOUR – Up 4% on news it will join the S&P midcap 400.

CMA – Baird would recommend buying on any weakness after company management meetings as loan pipelines are healthy and fee business is strong. Stock is not cheap but fair at near TBV valuation ex items.

NAREIT – A big conference this week so expect some data dumps from the public REIT crowd.

JPM sees investment banks post-election momentum continuing – Seeking Alpha

AMLX – Baird upgrading AMLX to Outperform and increasing our PT to $11 (+$8). We've become more favorable on avexitide (a GLP-1 receptor antagonist that Amylyx acquired in July from Eiger) and we're adding it to our model. Phase 3 results for avexitide in post-bariatric hypoglycemia (PBH) are expected in 2026. We model $815M in sales in 2033 if approved (we believe this can be achieved with even just ~4% market penetration in the US alone), and we see a 60% probability of approval.

LLY – Tirzepatide (mounjaro) reduced the risk of worsening heart failure events by 38% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lillys-tirzepatide-reduced-risk-worsening-150000219.html [finance.yahoo.com]

Technology

NVDA - Nvidia Corp. has in recent months asked suppliers to change the design of the server racks for its new Blackwell graphics processing unit due to an overheating problem, leading to worries about delays

ALAB gains 4% as Citi initiates coverage of the semiconductor stock with a buy rating, saying the shares provide artificial intelligence investors with a unique opportunity.

SMCI climbs 9% as the server maker approaches a deadline to either file a delayed 10-K annual report or submit a plan to file the form to Nasdaq in order to remain listed on the exchange.

TSLA: Trump Team Is Seeking to Ease US Rules for Self-Driving Cars – bloomberg. Stock +8% in pre. Watch MBLY+ and LYFT/UBER -

ROKU – Baird Upgrading to Outperform PT $90 from $70. ROKU is down 25% YTD vs. S&P 500 +23%. Historically, we have been hesitant regarding the company's execution in a rapidly evolving streaming landscape

T-Mobile’s network was among those recently breached by Chinese hackers in an attack on multiple telecommunications companies.

MicroStrategy Inc. bought about 51,780 Bitcoin for around $4.6 billion, the largest purchase by the crypto hedge fund proxy since it began acquiring the digital asset more than four years ago. 

Industrials 

 Biden authorizes Ukraine to use long range US weapons in Russia https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/17/politics/biden-authorizes-ukraine-missiles-russian-targets/index.html [cnn.com]

TSLA: Trump Team Is Seeking to Ease US Rules for Self-Driving Cars – bloomberg. Stock +8% in pre. Watch MBLY+ and LYFT/UBER -

 SOX heavy .. set to gap below its 200D; Nvidia print coming at critical juncture to say the least

When looking at growth expectations for the MAG 7 compared to the ex. MAG 7 the largest most liquid companies continue to carry the overall growth expectations for the broader index.